Port Vale 1-2 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Stevenage travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 19 August 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Port Vale — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port Vale have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Vale Park, Port Vale have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vale Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stevenage have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League One this season, Stevenage have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port Vale 1.50 PPG, Stevenage 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Port Vale, 0 for Stevenage and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Stevenage trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 47% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Port Vale 43% | Stevenage 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 0.92 xG and Stevenage 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.695 / defence 1.011 | Stevenage attack 1.066 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.087. Port Vale's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Port Vale games / 49 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 27% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 40%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Stevenage 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 20% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Aug 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 27% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Port Vale 0.92 / Stevenage 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.695 / def 1.011 | Stevenage attack 1.066 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stevenage xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Stevenage kick off?
Port Vale vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 August 2025 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Port Vale 1 - 2 Stevenage.
Where is Port Vale vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Stevenage part of?
Port Vale vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 27% chance of winning, Stevenage a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Port Vale and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Stevenage?
Record (4 meetings): Port Vale 1W | Draws 3 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Port Vale and Stevenage in?
Port Vale (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Stevenage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (0.69) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
27%
3.64
32%
3.10
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.09
1.17
Stevenage xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
8%
11.77
16%
6.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.5 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.17 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 22W 16D 11L from 49 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 19L across 49 games — 1.35 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stevenage, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.67 PPG, Stevenage on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 12W 8D 4L from 24 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 7W 7D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Stevenage in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Early Season
Stevenage
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 22W 16D 11L in their last 49 games (1.67 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Stevenage away?
Port Vale's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.83 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Stevenage in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Port Vale's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Port Vale
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 1, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Stevenage 2-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 42%, Stevenage 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Port Vale) and 29% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Stevenage in 42%; Port Vale have failed to score in 33% of games; Stevenage in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Port Vale's recent matches and 33% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Port Vale's recent games and 29% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Stevenage edge out Port Vale 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat Port Vale 1-2 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 0.92 xG and Stevenage 1.17 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Stevenage outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.69 / defence 1.01 against Stevenage attack 1.07 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 27% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 40%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 43%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.67 PPG, Stevenage 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.