Plymouth 4-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Stockport County at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 September 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plymouth have posted 4W 1D 5L at Home Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stockport County — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Stockport County have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stockport County's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stockport County — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Plymouth in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Stockport County 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 60% | Stockport County 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 0.84 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.673 / defence 1.158 | Stockport County attack 1.212 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.022. Plymouth's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 6 Plymouth games / 52 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 22% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 51%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Stockport County 1.96. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 43% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Plymouth 70% | Stockport County 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 22% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Plymouth 0.84 / Stockport County 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.673 / def 1.158 | Stockport County attack 1.212 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Stockport County xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Stockport County kick off?
Plymouth vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 September 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Plymouth 4 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Plymouth vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Stockport County part of?
Plymouth vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 22% chance of winning, Stockport County a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Plymouth and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Stockport County in?
Plymouth (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.67) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
22%
4.52
27%
3.71
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.28
1.44
Stockport County xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
5%
18.99
22%
4.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.7 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.4 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.44 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 12W 13D 27L from 52 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 10L across 52 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 10W 7D 9L from 26 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.94 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stockport County's away record stands at 9W 11D 6L across 26 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.54 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 52 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Stockport County
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 12W 13D 27L in their last 52 games (0.94 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 26W 16D 10L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.42 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Stockport County in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Stockport County runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plymouth's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stockport County?
From 3 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Plymouth 1-3 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Plymouth at 73%, Stockport County at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Plymouth) and 31% (Stockport County).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Plymouth's games and 62% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Plymouth's recent games and 31% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Stockport County tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Stockport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Stockport County 4-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 0.84 xG and Stockport County 1.44 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Plymouth beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Stockport County attack 1.21 / defence 0.94, drawn from 6/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 22% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 51%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 60%, Stockport County 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. Stockport County (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.