Plymouth 0-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Peterborough travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 September 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Home Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 League One matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Plymouth, 1 for Peterborough and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–5 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Plymouth trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
Peterborough trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Plymouth 56% and Peterborough 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 61% | Peterborough 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.77 xG and Peterborough 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.942 / defence 1.211 | Peterborough attack 0.961 / defence 1.295. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.049. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.295 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Plymouth games / 54 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 50% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 26%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Peterborough 3.85. Plymouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 70% | Peterborough 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 50% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Plymouth 1.77 / Peterborough 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.942 / def 1.211 | Peterborough attack 0.961 / def 1.295 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Peterborough xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Peterborough kick off?
Plymouth vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Plymouth 0 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Plymouth vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Peterborough part of?
Plymouth vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 50% chance of winning, Peterborough a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Plymouth and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
Record (2 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in?
Plymouth (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.94x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.28
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.99
1.22
Peterborough xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
5%
22.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.22 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth's recent record stands at 14W 13D 27L from 54 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 27L across 54 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.02 PPG, Peterborough on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Plymouth have managed 11W 7D 9L from 27 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Peterborough's away record stands at 5W 5D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.37 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 67%.
Last 54 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Peterborough away?
Plymouth's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.48 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Peterborough runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Peterborough won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plymouth's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Plymouth
0
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Peterborough?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Peterborough have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Peterborough 0-1 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Plymouth at 74%, Peterborough at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Plymouth and 70% for Peterborough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Plymouth's games and 70% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plymouth vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Plymouth's matches and 70% of Peterborough's.
Do Plymouth and Peterborough tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Plymouth 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Plymouth 0-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.77 xG and Peterborough 1.22 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Plymouth fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against Peterborough attack 0.96 / defence 1.29, drawn from 8/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 50% | Draw 23% | Peterborough 26%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 61%, Peterborough 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Peterborough's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.02 PPG, Peterborough 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Peterborough (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.