Northampton 3-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Northampton at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 14 as Northampton welcome Crawley Town to Sixfields Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Northampton — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium.
Across all League One games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Northampton have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Northampton have won 2, Crawley Town 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Northampton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Crawley Town trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 54% versus Crawley Town 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.38 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.864 / defence 1.068 | Crawley Town attack 0.739 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.222. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Northampton games / 12 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Crawley Town 3.85. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 40% | Crawley Town 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Northampton 1.38 / Crawley Town 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.864 / def 1.068 | Crawley Town attack 0.739 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Northampton (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Crawley Town xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Crawley Town kick off?
Northampton vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Northampton 3 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Northampton vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Crawley Town part of?
Northampton vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 46% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Northampton and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Record (4 meetings): Northampton 2W | Draws 1 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Northampton and Crawley Town in?
Northampton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.86) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
46%
2.16
27%
3.66
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.34
0.96
Crawley Town xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.66
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Northampton and 0.96 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 12D 25L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.44 PPG from 57 outings (25W 7D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.26 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 13W 6D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (12W 3D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.60 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 games (1.26 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 25W 7D 25L in their last 57 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Crawley Town away?
Northampton's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.61 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Crawley Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2024, when Northampton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Crawley Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Crawley Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Crawley Town 3-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Crawley Town?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 50%, Crawley Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Northampton) and 57% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crawley Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Northampton's recent matches and 54% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Northampton's recent games and 57% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Northampton run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Crawley Town 3-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.38 xG and Crawley Town 0.96 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crawley Town landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Crawley Town attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 57/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 46% | Draw 27% | Crawley Town 26%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Crawley Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.26 PPG, Crawley Town 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.