Mansfield Town 1-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charlton at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Charlton encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Charlton travel to One Call Stadium to take on Mansfield Town in League One (matchday 40). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Mansfield Town have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Mansfield Town at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Charlton away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Charlton's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Mansfield Town's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Mansfield Town, 0 for Charlton and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Mansfield Town 0–0 Charlton — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).

Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 84 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mansfield Town 62% and Charlton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 55% | Charlton 50%). Note also that Charlton surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Mansfield Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 0.86 xG and Charlton 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.704 / defence 1.151 | Charlton attack 0.978 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.111. Mansfield Town's attack rating of 0.704 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.86. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 38 games and Charlton's last 85.

Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 25% | Draw 30% | Charlton 45%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 4.01 | Draw 3.30 | Charlton 2.23. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 40% (last 10 away games).

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