Crawley Town 3-4 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet in-form Peterborough provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crawley Town vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Crawley Town and Peterborough meet at Broadfield Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 40. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Crawley Town have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Peterborough (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Peterborough's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Peterborough are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Peterborough in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Peterborough and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 3–4 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Peterborough 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Peterborough 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.21 xG and Peterborough 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.785 / defence 1.153 | Peterborough attack 0.917 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.111. Crawley Town's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Crawley Town games / 84 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Peterborough 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Peterborough (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 60% | Peterborough 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Crawley Town 1.21 / Peterborough 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.785 / def 1.153 | Peterborough attack 0.917 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.268 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Peterborough xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Peterborough kick off?
Crawley Town vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Peterborough?
Crawley Town 3 - 4 Peterborough.
Where is Crawley Town vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Peterborough part of?
Crawley Town vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 36% chance of winning, Peterborough a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Crawley Town and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Crawley Town 0W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Crawley Town and Peterborough in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Peterborough (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.92x) against Crawley Town's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 39/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.46
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.39
1.18
Peterborough xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
11%
8.89
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.18 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 32W 15D 39L from 86 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 37W 19D 30L across 86 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Crawley Town against 1.51 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 17W 9D 17L from 43 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 16W 8D 19L across 43 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Crawley Town are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.71 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 63%.
Last 86 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 32W 15D 39L in their last 86 games (1.29 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 37W 19D 30L in their last 86 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Peterborough away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.40 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Crawley Town
0
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 0, Peterborough have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2025, when Crawley Town 3-4 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 58%, Peterborough 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Crawley Town) and 60% (Peterborough).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Crawley Town's games and 63% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Crawley Town's recent games and 60% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Peterborough tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Crawley Town 3-4 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.21 xG and Peterborough 1.18 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Crawley Town beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Peterborough outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.79 / defence 1.15 against Peterborough attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Peterborough win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 56%, Peterborough 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.29 PPG, Peterborough 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.