Crawley Town 3-4 Peterborough – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 36%, yet in-form Peterborough provide a compelling counter-argument — this Crawley Town vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Crawley Town and Peterborough meet at Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 40). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Crawley Town have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Crawley Town have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Peterborough (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Peterborough's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Peterborough are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) — Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Peterborough in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Peterborough and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 7.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Crawley Town 3–4 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 36 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).

Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Peterborough 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Peterborough 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.21 xG and Peterborough 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.785 / defence 1.153 | Peterborough attack 0.917 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.111. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 39 games and Peterborough's last 84.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 36% | Draw 29% | Peterborough 35%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.74 | Draw 3.46 | Peterborough 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Peterborough (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crawley Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 60% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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