Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Charlton (51%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Charlton face Shrewsbury.

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Analysis & Preview

Shrewsbury travel to The Valley to take on Charlton in League One (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Charlton — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Charlton have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Shrewsbury have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Shrewsbury have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Charlton are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Charlton's games and 60% of Shrewsbury's (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Shrewsbury's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Charlton: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Shrewsbury, with 2 draws.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Charlton 1–0 Shrewsbury — a Charlton win.

The head-to-head data gives Charlton an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Profile

Charlton in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 65% versus Shrewsbury 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Shrewsbury 42%). Note also that Shrewsbury surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Charlton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 48% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.48 xG and Shrewsbury 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.880 / defence 0.824 | Shrewsbury attack 0.898 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.179. Shrewsbury's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Charlton's last 71 games and Shrewsbury's last 71.

Result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 22%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.96 | Draw 3.68 | Shrewsbury 4.56. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Shrewsbury 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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