Stockport County 2-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 62% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Crawley Town.

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Analysis

Crawley Town make the trip to Edgeley Park to face Stockport County in League One (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 January 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Stockport County's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Crawley Town have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Crawley Town have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Stockport County against 1.00 for Crawley Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Stockport County, 1 for Crawley Town and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Stockport County 1–1 Crawley Town — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 56% versus Crawley Town 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 53% | Crawley Town 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.18 xG and Crawley Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.096 / defence 1.060 | Crawley Town attack 0.876 / defence 1.587. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.179. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.587 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 26 games and Crawley Town's last 24.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 62% | Draw 20% | Crawley Town 18%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.62 | Draw 4.91 | Crawley Town 5.61. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 50% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 40% (last 10 away games).

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