Cambridge United vs Burton Albion – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambridge United vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burton Albion make the trip to Abbey Stadium to face Cambridge United in League One, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 February 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cambridge United's overall League One record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cambridge United have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambridge United at Abbey Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Cambridge United, 3 for Burton Albion and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cambridge United — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 53% versus Burton Albion 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 40% | Burton Albion 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.87 xG and Burton Albion 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 1.098 / defence 1.257 | Burton Albion attack 0.828 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.334. Data: 7 Cambridge United games / 53 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambridge United 47% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 27%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Burton Albion 3.70. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.26 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambridge United 60% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambridge United vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Abbey Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambridge United 47% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Cambridge United 1.87 / Burton Albion 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Cambridge United attack 1.098 / def 1.257 | Burton Albion attack 0.828 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Cambridge United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Cambridge United xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Burton Albion xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambridge United vs Burton Albion kick off?
Cambridge United vs Burton Albion is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Abbey Stadium.
Where is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Abbey Stadium.
What competition is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion part of?
Cambridge United vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Cambridge United a 47% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cambridge United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Cambridge United and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Cambridge United vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Burton Albion?
Record (9 meetings): Cambridge United 3W | Draws 3 | Burton Albion 3W.
What form are Cambridge United and Burton Albion in?
Cambridge United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cambridge United's attack rating (1.10) and Burton Albion's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.83x) against Cambridge United's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 7/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambridge United Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.88
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Cambridge United xG
Total xG
3.26
1.39
Burton Albion xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
4%
24.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Cambridge United and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Cambridge United and 1.39 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambridge United vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Cambridge United have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 25W 19D 9L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cambridge United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burton Albion's form line: 15W 18D 20L from 53 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cambridge United are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cambridge United have posted 2.19 PPG from 26 outings (17W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Cambridge United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 5W 10D 11L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambridge United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cambridge United are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambridge United
Early Season
Burton Albion
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambridge United and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Cambridge United have gone 25W 19D 9L in their last 53 games (1.77 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 15W 18D 20L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambridge United at home or Burton Albion away?
Cambridge United's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambridge United at home: 2.19 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Cambridge United or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cambridge United have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambridge United won 3-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambridge United have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Cambridge United
3
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambridge United and Burton Albion?
From 9 meetings on record, Cambridge United have won 3, Burton Albion have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cambridge United and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Burton Albion 2-2 Cambridge United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambridge United 58%, Burton Albion 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cambridge United) and 54% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Burton Albion in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambridge United home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambridge United play Burton Albion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cambridge United's games and 58% of Burton Albion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambridge United vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cambridge United's recent games and 54% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambridge United and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Cambridge United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.