West Brom 1-0 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
West Brom's home record at The Hawthorns: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — West Brom are significantly better at The Hawthorns than their overall form suggests.
Birmingham's overall Championship record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Birmingham have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Birmingham hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Birmingham winning.
It is worth noting that Birmingham have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 49% versus Birmingham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 39% | Birmingham 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.95 xG and Birmingham 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.086 / defence 0.742 | Birmingham attack 0.935 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.183. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing West Brom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. West Brom's defence rating of 0.742 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 West Brom games / 74 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 63% | Draw 22% | Birmingham 15%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Birmingham 6.67. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: West Brom 40% | Birmingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 63% | Draw 22% | Birmingham 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 48% | xG West Brom 1.95 / Birmingham 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.086 / def 0.742 | Birmingham attack 0.935 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: West Brom (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Birmingham xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Birmingham kick off?
West Brom vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Birmingham?
West Brom 1 - 0 Birmingham.
Where is West Brom vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Birmingham part of?
West Brom vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 63% chance of winning, Birmingham a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both West Brom and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Birmingham?
Record (5 meetings): West Brom 1W | Draws 0 | Birmingham 4W.
What form are West Brom and Birmingham in?
West Brom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.09) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.94x) against West Brom's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.52
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.77
0.82
Birmingham xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
2%
47.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are West Brom and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for West Brom and 0.82 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 31W 18D 25L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Birmingham's form line: 22W 19D 33L from 74 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for West Brom against 1.15 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.89 PPG from 37 outings (20W 10D 7L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 10W 7D 20L from 37 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Brom are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Birmingham in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 31W 18D 25L in their last 74 games (1.50 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 22W 19D 33L in their last 74 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Birmingham away?
West Brom's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.89 PPG; Birmingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have West Brom or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Birmingham in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
West Brom
2
Draws
4
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Birmingham?
From 8 meetings on record, West Brom have won 2, Birmingham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2026, when Birmingham 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 43%, Birmingham 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (West Brom) and 46% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Birmingham in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of West Brom's recent matches and 49% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of West Brom's recent games and 46% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Birmingham tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as West Brom edge out Birmingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat Birmingham 1-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.95 xG and Birmingham 0.82 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Brom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Birmingham landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.09 / defence 0.74 against Birmingham attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 63% | Draw 22% | Birmingham 15%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 39%, Birmingham 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Birmingham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.50 PPG, Birmingham 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Brom win broke the near-deadlock. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Birmingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.