Swansea 0-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Swansea face Plymouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Plymouth at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Swansea — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Swansea have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 1.20 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Swansea's games and 60% of Plymouth's (from Swansea's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Swansea, 0 for Plymouth and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Swansea 3–1 Plymouth — a Swansea win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Swansea in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Swansea 62% and Plymouth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 61% | Plymouth 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Swansea surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Plymouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.46 xG and Plymouth 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.904 / defence 1.105 | Plymouth attack 0.753 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.183. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Swansea's last 75 games and Plymouth's last 28.
Result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 25%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 2.11 | Draw 3.61 | Plymouth 4.02. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Swansea 70% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 30 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Swansea 1.46 / Plymouth 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.904 / def 1.105 | Plymouth attack 0.753 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Swansea (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Plymouth xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swansea vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does Swansea vs Plymouth kick off?
Swansea vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Plymouth?
Swansea 0 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Swansea vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Plymouth part of?
Swansea vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 30) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 47% chance of winning, Plymouth a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Swansea and Plymouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Swansea vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Swansea's attack at 0.90x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swansea's last 75 games and Plymouth's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.61
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Swansea xG
Total xG
2.44
0.98
Plymouth xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
6%
17.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swansea vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Swansea and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Swansea and 0.98 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Swansea come into this having played 74 games, going 26W 20D 28L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.81 PPG from 74 outings (39W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Swansea — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Swansea's home form reads 15W 9D 13L across their last 37 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 37 away games (11W 13D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Swansea are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.74 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swansea have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
Swansea (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swansea
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Swansea vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are Swansea and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 26W 20D 28L in their last 74 games (1.32 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 39W 17D 18L in their last 74 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Plymouth away?
Swansea's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.46 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Swansea or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Swansea have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Plymouth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 9 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Apr 2025, when Swansea won Swansea 3-0 Plymouth.
Swansea's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Swansea
0
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Swansea vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Swansea have won 3, Plymouth have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2025: Swansea 3-0 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Plymouth?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 60%, Plymouth 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Swansea) and 60% (Plymouth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swansea vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swansea and Plymouth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Swansea's games and 62% of Plymouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Swansea and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Swansea's matches and 60% of Plymouth's.
Do Swansea and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Swansea's recent matches and 68% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Swansea 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Swansea 0-1 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.46 xG and Plymouth 0.98 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swansea fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Plymouth attack 0.75 / defence 1.15, drawn from 75/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 47% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 25%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Plymouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 61%, Plymouth 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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