QPR 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sunderland (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as QPR face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
QPR and Sunderland meet at MATRADE Loftus Road in Championship, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 3W 3D 4L at MATRADE Loftus Road — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sunderland are 1.40 PPG clear of QPR in recent Championship fixtures (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for QPR, 2 for Sunderland and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
QPR — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sunderland — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 52% versus Sunderland 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 45% | Sunderland 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.827 / defence 1.384 | Sunderland attack 1.236 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 0.968. Sunderland have an above-average attack strength of 1.236 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 58 QPR games / 58 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 21% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 2.00. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 70% | Sunderland 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 21% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG QPR 1.02 / Sunderland 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.827 / def 1.384 | Sunderland attack 1.236 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.377 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Sunderland xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Sunderland kick off?
QPR vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Sunderland?
QPR 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is QPR vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Sunderland part of?
QPR vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 21% chance of winning, Sunderland a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both QPR and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
Record (4 meetings): QPR 0W | Draws 2 | Sunderland 2W.
What form are QPR and Sunderland in?
QPR (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Sunderland (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about QPR vs Sunderland?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
QPR's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.24x) against QPR's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
21%
4.66
28%
3.55
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
QPR xG
Total xG
2.68
1.66
Sunderland xG
4.66
21%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
24.46
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are QPR and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for QPR and 1.66 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, QPR have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 17D 25L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland's form line: 25W 9D 24L from 58 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for QPR against 1.45 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.03 PPG from 29 outings (7W 9D 13L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 10W 6D 13L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.29 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Sunderland in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 16W 17D 25L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 9D 24L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.03 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.24 PPG.
Have QPR or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
QPR
3
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, QPR have won 1, Sunderland have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 62%, Sunderland 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 41% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 31%; Sunderland in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of QPR's games and 48% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of QPR's recent games and 41% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Sunderland tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 13, as QPR and Sunderland drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.02 xG and Sunderland 1.66 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.83 / defence 1.38 against Sunderland attack 1.24 / defence 0.90, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 21% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 50%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 45%, Sunderland 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.12 PPG, Sunderland 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.