Portsmouth 3-1 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Preston at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Preston encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Preston make the trip to Fratton Park to face Portsmouth in Championship (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Portsmouth (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Preston have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Preston have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Preston arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Preston — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 57% versus Preston 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 57% | Preston 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Preston 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.620 / defence 1.339 | Preston attack 1.052 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.997. Portsmouth's attack rating of 0.620 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Preston's defence rating of 1.305 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Portsmouth's projected output up. Portsmouth's defence rating of 1.339 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Preston's projected output up. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 14 games and Preston's last 60.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 28% | Draw 29% | Preston 43%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.63 | Draw 3.41 | Preston 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Preston are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Preston 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Preston | Competition: Championship, matchday 15 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 28% | Draw 29% | Preston 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Portsmouth 1.08 / Preston 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.620 / def 1.339 | Preston attack 1.052 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Preston (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Preston xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Preston FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Preston kick off?
Portsmouth vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Preston?
Portsmouth 3 - 1 Preston.
Where is Portsmouth vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Preston part of?
Portsmouth vs Preston is a Championship fixture (matchday 15) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 28% chance of winning, Preston a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Portsmouth and Preston will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Portsmouth vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 0.62x the league average against Preston's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Preston's attack (1.05x) against Portsmouth's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 14 games and Preston's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
28%
3.63
29%
3.41
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.48
1.41
Preston xG
3.63
28%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Preston Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.41 for Preston, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portsmouth come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 19D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.30 PPG from 60 outings (21W 15D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
Portsmouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Preston — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Portsmouth's home form reads 15W 8D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 29 away games (7W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portsmouth are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.17 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
Preston
Blended
Portsmouth (Home) vs Preston (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Portsmouth vs Preston Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Preston in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Preston have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Preston away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.83 PPG; Preston away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Preston in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Portsmouth
0
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Preston H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Preston?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 2, Preston have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Preston last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Preston 1-0 Portsmouth.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 66%, Preston 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Portsmouth) and 48% (Preston). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Preston Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Preston matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 41% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Preston matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Portsmouth's matches and 48% of Preston's.
Do Portsmouth and Preston matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 66% of Preston's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Preston.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Preston 3-1 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.08 xG and Preston 1.41 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.62 / defence 1.34 against Preston attack 1.05 / defence 1.30, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 28% | Draw 29% | Preston 43%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Portsmouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 57%, Preston 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Preston (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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