Derby 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 69%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Plymouth meet at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 8W 1D 1L at Pride Park Stadium — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Plymouth have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Derby against 1.30 for Plymouth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Derby have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Plymouth in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Derby, 2 for Plymouth and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with Plymouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Plymouth — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Plymouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 52% | Plymouth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.91 xG and Plymouth 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.014 / defence 0.979 | Plymouth attack 0.579 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.997. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Derby games / 60 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 69% | Draw 22% | Plymouth 9%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Plymouth 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Derby (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 69% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 20% | Plymouth 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 69% | Draw 22% | Plymouth 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 38% | xG Derby 1.91 / Plymouth 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.014 / def 0.979 | Plymouth attack 0.579 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: Derby (69%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Plymouth xG
38%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Plymouth kick off?
Derby vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Plymouth?
Derby 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Derby vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Plymouth part of?
Derby vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 69% chance of winning, Plymouth a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Derby and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 2W.
What form are Derby and Plymouth in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Plymouth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Derby vs Plymouth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.01x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.58x) against Derby's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
69%
1.46
22%
4.50
9%
10.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Derby xG
Total xG
2.47
0.56
Plymouth xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
10.91
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
15%
6.73
Win to Nil
39%
2.56
1%
73.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Derby and 0.56 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derby's recent record stands at 33W 11D 16L from 60 games, a 1.83 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 17W 15D 28L across 60 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derby have managed 19W 5D 5L from 29 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 3W 7D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.22 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 games (1.83 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 17W 15D 28L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Plymouth away?
Derby's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 2.14 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Derby or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Plymouth in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
1
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Plymouth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Plymouth 2-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Plymouth 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Derby) and 48% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Plymouth in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 45% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Plymouth tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Plymouth finished level at 1-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.91 xG and Plymouth 0.56 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Derby fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Plymouth attack 0.58 / defence 1.41, drawn from 14/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 69% | Draw 22% | Plymouth 9%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 52%, Plymouth 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.