Middlesbrough 2-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Derby travel to Riverside Stadium to take on Middlesbrough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Middlesbrough have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Riverside Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Middlesbrough are significantly better at Riverside Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derby — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Middlesbrough register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Middlesbrough have won 2, Derby 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Middlesbrough winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Derby in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 52% versus Derby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 46% | Derby 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.38 xG and Derby 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.081 / defence 1.016 | Derby attack 1.129 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.206. Data: 63 Middlesbrough games / 63 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 37% | Draw 26% | Derby 37%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Derby 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 37% | Draw 26% | Derby 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Middlesbrough 1.38 / Derby 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.081 / def 1.016 | Derby attack 1.129 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Derby xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Derby kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Middlesbrough 2 - 1 Derby.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Derby part of?
Middlesbrough vs Derby is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 37% chance of winning, Derby a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Middlesbrough and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?
Record (4 meetings): Middlesbrough 2W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Derby in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Derby (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.08x the league average against Derby's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Middlesbrough's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
37%
2.70
26%
3.91
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.76
1.38
Derby xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.38 for Derby, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Middlesbrough's recent record stands at 26W 16D 21L from 63 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 27L across 63 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Middlesbrough on 1.49 PPG, Derby on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Middlesbrough have managed 16W 8D 7L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.14 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Derby in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 26W 16D 21L in their last 63 games (1.49 PPG), while Derby have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Derby away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.81 PPG; Derby away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Middlesbrough won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Middlesbrough's record when hosting Derby specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 3, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Derby 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Derby?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 48%, Derby 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Middlesbrough) and 52% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Middlesbrough have failed to score in 26% of games; Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Middlesbrough's games and 64% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Middlesbrough vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 52% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Derby tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Derby in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Middlesbrough defy the odds to beat Derby 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Derby 2-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.38 xG and Derby 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Derby attack 1.13 / defence 0.98, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 37% | Draw 26% | Derby 37%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 46%, Derby 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.49 PPG, Derby 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.