Leeds 3-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elland Road plays host to Leeds versus Plymouth in Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leeds have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Leeds, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leeds's home record at Elland Road: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Elland Road this season.
Plymouth (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Leeds. A 1.00 PPG lead over Plymouth (2.10 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Leeds have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Plymouth in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Leeds 2W, Plymouth 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Leeds winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Leeds half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 40% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 50% | Plymouth 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 2.27 xG and Plymouth 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.214 / defence 0.886 | Plymouth attack 0.628 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 0.968. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Leeds's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Leeds games / 58 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 76% | Draw 18% | Plymouth 6%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.32 | Draw 5.56 | Plymouth 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (76%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 30% | Plymouth 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 76% | Draw 18% | Plymouth 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 39% | xG Leeds 2.27 / Plymouth 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.214 / def 0.886 | Plymouth attack 0.628 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.377 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Leeds (76%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Plymouth xG
39%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Plymouth kick off?
Leeds vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Plymouth?
Leeds 3 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Leeds vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Plymouth part of?
Leeds vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 76% chance of winning, Plymouth a 6% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Leeds and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Plymouth?
Record (2 meetings): Leeds 2W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 0W.
What form are Leeds and Plymouth in?
Leeds (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Leeds vs Plymouth?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Leeds's attack at 1.21x the league average against Plymouth's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (0.63x) against Leeds's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.54.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 3-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
76%
1.32
18%
5.46
6%
16.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
3 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Leeds xG
Total xG
2.81
0.54
Plymouth xG
1.32
76%
Home win
5.46
18%
Draw
16.64
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.60
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
58%
1.71
10%
9.71
Win to Nil
44%
2.26
1%
161.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Leeds and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Leeds and 0.54 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Leeds's recent record stands at 34W 13D 11L from 58 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Leeds is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 16W 15D 27L across 58 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Leeds by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Plymouth heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Leeds have managed 21W 4D 4L from 29 games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 3W 8D 18L across 29 trips, a 0.59 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Leeds are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.24 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 34W 13D 11L in their last 58 games (1.98 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 16W 15D 27L in their last 58 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Plymouth away?
Leeds's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.31 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Leeds or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Plymouth in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Leeds go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Leeds won 3-0 on 2 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leeds have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Leeds
0
Draws
0
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Leeds have won 4, Plymouth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Plymouth 1-2 Leeds.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Plymouth?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 41%, Plymouth 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Leeds) and 45% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Plymouth in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Leeds's recent matches and 45% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Leeds's recent games and 45% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leeds and Plymouth tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leeds run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Plymouth 3-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.27 xG and Plymouth 0.54 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.21 / defence 0.89 against Plymouth attack 0.63 / defence 1.36, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 76% | Draw 18% | Plymouth 6%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Plymouth 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.09. Form held, and they took the win. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Plymouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.