Derby vs Preston – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Derby (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Derby face Preston.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Preston meet at Pride Park in Championship, Regular Season - 39. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Pride Park, Derby have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park than their overall form suggests.
Preston (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Preston have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Championship this season, Preston have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Derby's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Preston's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 3W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–0 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derby 64% and Preston 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 54% | Preston 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.38 xG and Preston 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.903 / defence 1.185 | Preston attack 0.845 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 50 Derby games / 50 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 33% | Preston 32%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Preston 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Preston 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 35% | Draw 33% | Preston 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG Derby 1.38 / Preston 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.903 / def 1.185 | Preston attack 0.845 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Derby (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Preston xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Preston kick off?
Derby vs Preston is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Pride Park.
Where is Derby vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Preston part of?
Derby vs Preston is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 35% chance of winning, Preston a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derby and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
Record (6 meetings): Derby 3W | Draws 2 | Preston 1W.
What form are Derby and Preston in?
Derby (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Preston (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.84x) against Derby's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.06
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Derby xG
Total xG
2.68
1.31
Preston xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Derby and 1.31 for Preston, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 50 games, going 21W 10D 19L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (15W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Preston, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Derby against 1.20 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 10W 7D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (7W 8D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.16 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derby have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Preston in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Early Season
Preston
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Preston in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 10D 19L in their last 50 games (1.46 PPG), while Preston have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Preston away?
Derby's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.48 PPG; Preston away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
2
Draws
1
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Preston have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Preston?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 64%, Preston 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 48% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Derby's games and 60% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 48% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Preston tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Preston in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.