Cardiff vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 15 as Cardiff welcome Burnley to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff at Cardiff City Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Cardiff) versus 0.70 (Burnley). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cardiff register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Burnley in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Burnley have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Cardiff.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Burnley winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Burnley have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Burnley trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cardiff 63% and Burnley 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 57% | Burnley 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 2.39 xG and Burnley 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.274 / defence 1.108 | Burnley attack 1.097 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Cardiff games / 11 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 56% | Draw 19% | Burnley 25%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | Burnley 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Cardiff (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.39 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 60% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 56% | Draw 19% | Burnley 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 72% | xG Cardiff 2.39 / Burnley 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.274 / def 1.108 | Burnley attack 1.097 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.39
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Burnley xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Burnley kick off?
Cardiff vs Burnley is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Burnley part of?
Cardiff vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 56% chance of winning, Burnley a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Cardiff and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
Record (4 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Burnley 3W.
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 1.27x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
56%
1.80
19%
5.17
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.39
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.98
1.59
Burnley xG
1.80
56%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
9%
10.95
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
2%
43.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.59 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 24W 13D 12L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley's form line: 5W 15D 29L from 49 games, 0.61 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cardiff are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 2.21 PPG from 24 outings (16W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Cardiff are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Burnley have gone 3W 4D 17L from 24 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.10 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cardiff have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Burnley in 65%.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Burnley in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 24W 13D 12L in their last 49 games (1.73 PPG), while Burnley have gone 5W 15D 29L in their last 49 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Burnley away?
Cardiff's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.21 PPG; Burnley away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Burnley runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Burnley have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Burnley won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cardiff
1
Draws
3
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Burnley?
From 4 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Burnley have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Cardiff 1-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Burnley?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cardiff at 58%, Burnley at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Cardiff and 71% for Burnley. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cardiff's games and 75% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Cardiff's matches and 71% of Burnley's.
Do Cardiff and Burnley tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Burnley in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.