Burnley 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Burnley take on Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burnley and Sunderland meet at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 January 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley at Turf Moor this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sunderland have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Sunderland have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Burnley 1W, Sunderland 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 48% versus Sunderland 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 44% | Sunderland 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.93 xG and Sunderland 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.728 / defence 0.723 | Sunderland attack 1.074 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.011. Burnley's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 26 Burnley games / 72 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 37% | Sunderland 27%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.78 | Draw 2.70 | Sunderland 3.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Sunderland's lower xG of 0.79 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.72 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 30% | Sunderland 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 36% | Draw 37% | Sunderland 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Burnley 0.93 / Sunderland 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.728 / def 0.723 | Sunderland attack 1.074 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Sunderland xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Sunderland kick off?
Burnley vs Sunderland kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Sunderland?
Burnley 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Burnley vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Sunderland part of?
Burnley vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 36% chance of winning, Sunderland a 27% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Burnley and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Sunderland?
Record (3 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Burnley and Sunderland in?
Burnley (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.73x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.07x) against Burnley's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 26/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
37%
2.71
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.72
0.79
Sunderland xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.71
37%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 14.1 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Burnley and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Burnley and 0.79 for Sunderland, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 19W 19D 26L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland's form line: 26W 15D 23L from 64 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Burnley against 1.45 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.10 PPG from 31 outings (8W 10D 13L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 8W 9D 14L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burnley are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.19 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 19W 19D 26L in their last 64 games (1.19 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 26W 15D 23L in their last 64 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Sunderland away?
Burnley's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.10 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Burnley or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sunderland in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Sunderland?
From 6 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Sunderland have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Sunderland 3-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burnley see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Sunderland 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Burnley) and 32% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 36% of games; Sunderland in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burnley's recent matches and 45% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Burnley's recent games and 32% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Burnley's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.93 xG and Sunderland 0.79 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burnley fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.73 / defence 0.72 against Sunderland attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 26/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 36% | Draw 37% | Sunderland 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 44%, Sunderland 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.19 PPG, Sunderland 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.