Burnley 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Derby at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Burnley 0.50 PPG, Derby 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Burnley, 0 for Derby and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Burnley in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 64% and Derby 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 53% | Derby 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.27 xG and Derby 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.848 / defence 1.184 | Derby attack 1.011 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.222. Data: 7 Burnley games / 53 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 31% | Draw 30% | Derby 40%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 31% | Draw 30% | Derby 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Burnley 1.27 / Derby 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.848 / def 1.184 | Derby attack 1.011 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Derby (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Derby xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Derby kick off?
Burnley vs Derby kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Derby?
Burnley 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Burnley vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Derby part of?
Burnley vs Derby is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 31% chance of winning, Derby a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Burnley and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Burnley 0W | Draws 2 | Derby 0W.
What form are Burnley and Derby in?
Burnley (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burnley's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
31%
3.24
30%
3.38
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.74
1.46
Derby xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
7%
14.00
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Burnley and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Burnley and 1.46 for Derby, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley come into this having played 45 games, going 4W 13D 28L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.47 PPG from 45 outings (20W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burnley's home form reads 2W 9D 11L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (10W 1D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.40 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Derby in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Derby in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 4W 13D 28L in their last 45 games (0.56 PPG), while Derby have gone 20W 6D 19L in their last 45 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.68 PPG; Derby away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Derby runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Burnley's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Burnley
3
Draws
0
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Derby?
From 3 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Derby have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Burnley 1-1 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 50%, Derby 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Burnley) and 68% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 59% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Burnley's recent games and 68% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Derby tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Derby in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 8, as Burnley and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.27 xG and Derby 1.46 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Derby attack 1.01 / defence 1.02, drawn from 7/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 31% | Draw 30% | Derby 40%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 53%, Derby 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.