Burnley vs Derby – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Derby at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Derby encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Burnley host Derby at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Burnley — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Derby's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Derby are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Burnley register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Burnley, 0 for Derby and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Burnley in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Derby in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 62% and Derby 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 52% | Derby 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.22 xG and Derby 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.893 / defence 1.152 | Derby attack 1.092 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.305. Data: 4 Burnley games / 50 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Burnley 25% | Draw 31% | Derby 44%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Derby 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 60% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.

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