Birmingham 4-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Birmingham (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Birmingham face Preston.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 10 as Birmingham welcome Preston to St. Andrew's Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Birmingham have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Birmingham have posted 4W 5D 1L at St. Andrew's Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Preston stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Birmingham have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Birmingham have won 4, Preston 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Birmingham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Birmingham in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Preston in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Birmingham 60% and Preston 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 49% | Preston 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.86 xG and Preston 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 1.082 / defence 1.105 | Preston attack 0.929 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.243. Data: 55 Birmingham games / 55 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 50% | Draw 25% | Preston 25%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Preston 4.00. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Birmingham as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Birmingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 70% | Preston 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: St. Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 50% | Draw 25% | Preston 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Birmingham 1.86 / Preston 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 1.082 / def 1.105 | Preston attack 0.929 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Preston xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Preston kick off?
Birmingham vs Preston kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at St. Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Preston?
Birmingham 4 - 0 Preston.
Where is Birmingham vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at St. Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Preston part of?
Birmingham vs Preston is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 50% chance of winning, Preston a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Birmingham and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Preston?
Record (8 meetings): Birmingham 4W | Draws 2 | Preston 2W.
What form are Birmingham and Preston in?
Birmingham (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Preston (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Birmingham's attack rating (1.08) and Preston's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Preston's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
50%
2.00
25%
4.07
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Birmingham xG
Total xG
3.13
1.28
Preston xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.16
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.28 for Preston, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Birmingham have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 20W 18D 17L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston's form line: 16W 16D 23L from 55 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Birmingham on 1.42 PPG, Preston on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Birmingham have posted 1.78 PPG from 27 outings (12W 12D 3L).
On the road, Preston have gone 7W 9D 11L from 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Birmingham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Birmingham are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.15 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Preston in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Preston in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 20W 18D 17L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Preston have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Preston away?
Birmingham's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.78 PPG; Preston away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Birmingham and Preston runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 13 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Birmingham have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Oct 2026, when Birmingham won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Birmingham's record when hosting Preston specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Birmingham
2
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Preston?
From 9 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 5, Preston have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 13 October 2026, when Birmingham 4-0 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Preston?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Birmingham at 70%, Preston at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Birmingham) and 52% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Preston in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Birmingham's games and 63% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Birmingham vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Birmingham's recent games and 52% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Preston tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Preston in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Birmingham run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Preston.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Preston 4-0 at St. Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.86 xG and Preston 1.28 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Birmingham beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Preston landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against Preston attack 0.93 / defence 1.19, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 50% | Draw 25% | Preston 25%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 49%, Preston 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Preston's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.42 PPG, Preston 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.