Zlin 2-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Letna plays host to Zlin versus Dukla Praha in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Zlin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Zlin at Stadion Letna this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Zlin, 0.90 for Dukla Praha — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Zlin 0W, Dukla Praha 0W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Zlin half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 53% versus Dukla Praha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 57% | Dukla Praha 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.40 xG and Dukla Praha 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.050 / defence 1.377 | Dukla Praha attack 0.794 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 30 Zlin games / 60 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 34%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Dukla Praha 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 50% | Dukla Praha 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 1 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 38% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Zlin 1.40 / Dukla Praha 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.050 / def 1.377 | Dukla Praha attack 0.794 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Zlin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Dukla Praha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Zlin 2 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Dukla Praha part of?
Zlin vs Dukla Praha is a Relegation Group - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 38% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Zlin and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
Record (2 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 2 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Zlin and Dukla Praha in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Zlin's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.79x) against Zlin's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
38%
2.62
28%
3.60
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.72
1.31
Dukla Praha xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Zlin and 1.31 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Zlin's recent record stands at 9W 7D 14L from 30 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 4W 11D 15L across 30 games — 0.77 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Zlin against 0.77 for Dukla Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 1W 6D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.67 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Dukla Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 4W 11D 15L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Dukla Praha away?
Zlin's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.27 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zlin
2
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
From 3 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Zlin 2-1 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Dukla Praha?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 60%, Dukla Praha 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zlin) and 27% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Zlin's recent matches and 40% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Zlin's recent games and 27% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Dukla Praha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Dukla Praha 2-1 at Stadion Letna, Relegation Group - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.40 xG and Dukla Praha 1.31 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.05 / defence 1.38 against Dukla Praha attack 0.79 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 38% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 34%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 57%, Dukla Praha 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.13 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.