Sparta Praha 2-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.20 PPG lead over Teplice (2.00 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across 7 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Praha 69% and Teplice 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Teplice 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.87 xG and Teplice 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.433 / defence 0.964 | Teplice attack 0.899 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.227 / away 1.195. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — their λ of 1.87 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Sparta Praha games / 44 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 27% | Teplice 18%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 5.56. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 80% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 27% | Teplice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Sparta Praha 1.87 / Teplice 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.433 / def 0.964 | Teplice attack 0.899 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.227 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Teplice xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 2 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 54% chance of winning, Teplice a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Record (7 meetings): Sparta Praha 4W | Draws 3 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Teplice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.43) and Teplice's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.90x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.65
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.90
1.04
Teplice xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
3%
35.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.04 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 28W 9D 12L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 14W 13D 22L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.17 PPG from 24 outings (16W 4D 4L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 9D 11L from 24 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sparta Praha have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 28W 9D 12L in their last 49 games (1.90 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 13D 22L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.17 PPG; Teplice away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 75%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Sparta Praha) and 42% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sparta Praha's games and 54% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 42% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Teplice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Teplice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha and Teplice finished level at 2-2 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.87 xG and Teplice 1.04 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Teplice outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.43 / defence 0.96 against Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 54% | Draw 27% | Teplice 18%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.