Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bohemians 1905 — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Slovácko, 4 for Bohemians 1905 and 3 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 47% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 53% | Bohemians 1905 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.19 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.782 / defence 0.987 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Slovácko's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Slovácko games / 36 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 36%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 1905 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 60% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 35% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 1905 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Slovácko 1.19 / Bohemians 1905 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.782 / def 0.987 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.946 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Slovácko 3W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 4W.
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.78x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
35%
2.84
29%
3.46
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.39
1.20
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.20 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Slovácko have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 8W 10D 20L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 12W 9D 17L from 38 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 0.89 PPG, Bohemians 1905 on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 4D 8L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.92 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.11 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
3
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 50%, Bohemians 1905 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Slovácko) and 44% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Slovácko have failed to score in 28% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Slovácko's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Slovácko's matches and 44% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.