Slavia Praha 2-1 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 73% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Slavia Praha and České Budějovice meet at Fortuna Arena in Czech Liga (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slavia Praha have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Slavia Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
České Budějovice (all games): 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
České Budějovice's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.40 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.10 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Slavia Praha, 1 for České Budějovice and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Jul 2023, ended Slavia Praha 3–1 České Budějovice — a Slavia Praha win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 49% versus České Budějovice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.24 xG and České Budějovice 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.200 / defence 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.712 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.174. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Slavia Praha's projected output up. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.712 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Slavia Praha's last 45 games and České Budějovice's last 45.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 10%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.38 | Draw 5.74 | České Budějovice 10.01. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (73%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Slavia Praha's last 10 home games and České Budějovice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slavia Praha 50% (last 10 home games) | České Budějovice 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 16 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Slavia Praha 2.24 / České Budějovice 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.200 / def 0.829 | České Budějovice attack 0.712 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.69
České Budějovice xG
45%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice FAQs
What time does Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Slavia Praha 2 - 1 České Budějovice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice part of?
Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 16) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 73% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Slavia Praha and České Budějovice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.20) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (0.71x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from Slavia Praha's last 45 games and České Budějovice's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
73%
1.38
17%
5.74
10%
10.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.93
0.69
České Budějovice xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
10.01
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
36%
2.75
1%
94.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 8.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.69 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 33W 9D 5L from 47 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 27L across 47 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over České Budějovice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 20W 2D 1L from their last 23 home games — 2.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 4W 4D 15L across their last 23 away games, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.53 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.11 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
Slavia Praha (Home) vs České Budějovice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slavia Praha
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice Form FAQs
What form are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 33W 9D 5L in their last 47 games (2.30 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 14W 6D 27L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or České Budějovice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.70 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent in our data was on 24 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 6-1 České Budějovice on 11 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
1
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Slavia Praha have won 6, České Budějovice have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and České Budějovice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 November 2024: České Budějovice 0-4 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and České Budějovice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 48%, České Budějovice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Slavia Praha and 61% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; České Budějovice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slavia Praha vs České Budějovice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slavia Praha and České Budějovice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 56% of České Budějovice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slavia Praha and České Budějovice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Slavia Praha's matches and 61% of České Budějovice's.
Do Slavia Praha and České Budějovice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 78% of České Budějovice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out České Budějovice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat České Budějovice 2-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.24 xG and České Budějovice 0.69 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.83 against České Budějovice attack 0.71 / defence 1.27, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 73% | Draw 17% | České Budějovice 10%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
České Budějovice's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.