FK Jablonec 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pardubice make the trip to Stadion Střelnice to face FK Jablonec in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
FK Jablonec (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pardubice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FK Jablonec, 0.90 for Pardubice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FK Jablonec lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FK Jablonec goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 62% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 52% | Pardubice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Pardubice 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.876 / defence 1.003 | Pardubice attack 0.905 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.178. Data: 45 FK Jablonec games / 45 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 29%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Pardubice 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 60% | Pardubice 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG FK Jablonec 1.38 / Pardubice 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.876 / def 1.003 | Pardubice attack 0.905 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pardubice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
FK Jablonec 2 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice part of?
FK Jablonec vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 44% chance of winning, Pardubice a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FK Jablonec and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
Record (3 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FK Jablonec's attack at 0.88x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.91x) against FK Jablonec's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.71
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
Pardubice xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
7%
13.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.07 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 12W 17D 21L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 26L across 50 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.08 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 7W 10D 7L from 24 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 7W 3D 14L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Pardubice in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 12W 17D 21L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Pardubice away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.29 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: FK Jablonec have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 3-0 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
FK Jablonec
1
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 7, Pardubice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Pardubice?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 62%, Pardubice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FK Jablonec) and 46% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of FK Jablonec's games and 50% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 46% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Pardubice tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FK Jablonec edge out Pardubice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Pardubice 2-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.38 xG and Pardubice 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.88 / defence 1.00 against Pardubice attack 0.91 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 44% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 29%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 52%, Pardubice 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.06 PPG, Pardubice 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.