Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Hradec Králové travel to Andrův stadion to take on Sigma Olomouc. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 March 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Andrův stadion, Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sigma Olomouc 1.60 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 3 for Hradec Králové and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sigma Olomouc trading profile (57 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (57 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 67% versus Hradec Králové 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 63% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.70 xG and Hradec Králové 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.201 / defence 1.147 | Hradec Králové attack 0.870 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.112. Data: 55 Sigma Olomouc games / 54 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 4.17. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sigma Olomouc at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 80% | Hradec Králové 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.70 / Hradec Králové 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.201 / def 1.147 | Hradec Králové attack 0.870 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 50% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Record (7 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 3W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sigma Olomouc's attack at 1.20x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.87
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.81
1.11
Hradec Králové xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.11 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 21W 12D 24L from 57 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 20L across 57 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 11W 6D 10L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 7W 7D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.14 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hradec Králové in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 12D 24L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 21W 16D 20L in their last 57 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Hradec Králové away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.44 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
5
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 67%, Hradec Králové 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Sigma Olomouc) and 41% (Hradec Králové). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 37%; Hradec Králové in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 33% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 41% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hradec Králové defy the odds to beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.70 xG and Hradec Králové 1.11 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.20 / defence 1.15 against Hradec Králové attack 0.87 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 50% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Hradec Králové win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 63%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.