Sigma Olomouc 1-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andruv stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andruv stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Andruv stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andruv stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.00 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 2W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 53% versus Bohemians 1905 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 54% | Bohemians 1905 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.10 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / defence 0.795 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.095. Sigma Olomouc's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Sigma Olomouc games / 53 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 20% | Bohemians 1905 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Andruv stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.10 / Bohemians 1905 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.860 / def 0.795 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.067 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Andruv stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andruv stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 38% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Record (6 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 2W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (0.86) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.07x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.09
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.03
0.93
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 0.93 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 57 games, going 20W 15D 22L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.16 PPG from 57 outings (17W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.16 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 13W 5D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (9W 7D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.00 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 games (1.32 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 17W 15D 25L in their last 57 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.57 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won 3-0 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 54%, Bohemians 1905 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sigma Olomouc) and 43% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 43% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 43% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Bohemians 1905 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Bohemians 1905 1-0 at Andruv stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.10 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.93 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians 1905 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.86 / defence 0.80 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.07 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 38% | Draw 32% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 54%, Bohemians 1905 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.