Sigma Olomouc 1-3 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sigma Olomouc. A 0.80 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Bohemians 1905 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 1W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 66% and Bohemians 1905 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 61% | Bohemians 1905 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.232 / defence 1.161 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.223. Data: 39 Sigma Olomouc games / 39 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 70% | Bohemians 1905 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.58 / Bohemians 1905 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.232 / def 1.161 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 3 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Record (4 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1905 1W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.23) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.88x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.78
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.83
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
6%
16.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.25 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 9D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.02 PPG from 41 outings (9W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.02 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (3W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 9W 15D 17L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.60 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Sigma Olomouc, 65% for Bohemians 1905 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sigma Olomouc and 55% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 65% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 55% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sigma Olomouc 1-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 61%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.