Sigma Olomouc 1-3 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga (matchday 11). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sigma Olomouc's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bohemians 1905's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sigma Olomouc. A 0.80 PPG lead over Bohemians 1905 (1.70 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 70% of Bohemians 1905's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sigma Olomouc, 1 for Bohemians 1905 and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Sigma Olomouc 2–2 Bohemians 1905 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 66% and Bohemians 1905 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 61% | Bohemians 1905 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.232 / defence 1.161 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.223. Data: built from Sigma Olomouc's last 39 games and Bohemians 1905's last 39.
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.26 | Draw 3.78 | Bohemians 1905 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sigma Olomouc's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sigma Olomouc 70% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.58 / Bohemians 1905 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.232 / def 1.161 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.878 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 FAQs
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 3 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.23) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.88x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Sigma Olomouc's last 39 games and Bohemians 1905's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.78
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.83
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
6%
16.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.25 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 9D 17L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.02 PPG from 41 outings (9W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.02 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across their last 20 home games, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 20 away games (3W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.95 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Sigma Olomouc (Home) vs Bohemians 1905 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 Form FAQs
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 9D 17L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 9W 15D 17L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.60 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905, the earliest from May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sigma Olomouc won Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905 on 5 Sep 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sigma Olomouc have won 5, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Sigma Olomouc 3-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Sigma Olomouc, 65% for Bohemians 1905 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sigma Olomouc and 55% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 65% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 55% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 70% of Bohemians 1905's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Sigma Olomouc 1-3 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.58 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.23 / defence 1.16 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Bohemians 1905 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 61%, Bohemians 1905 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians 1905 win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.