Bohemians 1905 2-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians 1905 face Mlada Boleslav.

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Analysis

Mlada Boleslav make the trip to Stadion Ďolíček to face Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Bohemians 1905 have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Bohemians 1905 have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bohemians 1905 against 1.20 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) — Bohemians 1905 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mlada Boleslav in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 0–0 Mlada Boleslav — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 49% | Mlada Boleslav 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.29 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.933 / defence 1.253 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.002 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.241. Bohemians 1905's defence rating of 1.253 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mlada Boleslav's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 40 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 40.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 30% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 42%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 3.37 | Draw 3.49 | Mlada Boleslav 2.40. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Mlada Boleslav's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 70% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 60% (last 10 away games).

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