Pardubice 1-5 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Plzen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Plzen at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 July 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Pardubice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Plzen — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Plzen haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Plzen's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Plzen have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Pardubice's 0 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Plzen have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 35% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Plzen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 31% versus Plzen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 40% | Plzen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.12 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.886 / defence 1.000 | Plzen attack 1.116 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.199. Data: 30 Pardubice games / 30 Plzen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pardubice 31% | Draw 27% | Plzen 42%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Plzen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 30% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jul 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 31% | Draw 27% | Plzen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 1.12 / Plzen 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.886 / def 1.000 | Plzen attack 1.116 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Plzen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Plzen xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Plzen kick off?
Pardubice vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 July 2025 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Pardubice 1 - 5 Plzen.
Where is Pardubice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Plzen part of?
Pardubice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 31% chance of winning, Plzen a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
Record (8 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 2 | Plzen 6W.
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.89) and Plzen's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.70
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.46
1.34
Plzen xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.20
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.34 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 7W 7D 21L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. Pardubice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Plzen's form line: 23W 5D 7L from 35 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. Plzen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 3D 4L from 17 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.03 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Pre-Season
Plzen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 7W 7D 21L in their last 35 games (0.80 PPG), while Plzen have gone 23W 5D 7L in their last 35 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.29 PPG; Plzen away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Plzen in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
2
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Plzen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 35% of their matches.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 35%, Plzen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Pardubice) and 59% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Plzen in 35%; Pardubice have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Pardubice's recent matches and 53% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Pardubice's recent games and 59% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Plzen tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 35% of their recent matches, Plzen in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 1-5 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.12 xG and Plzen 1.34 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Plzen outscored their 1.34 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.89 / defence 1.00 against Plzen attack 1.12 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 31% | Draw 27% | Plzen 42%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 40%, Plzen 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.