Pardubice vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion Arnosta Kostala to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Pardubice are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2026, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pardubice trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 69% and Hradec Králové 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 58% | Hradec Králové 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.32 xG and Hradec Králové 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.030 / defence 1.030 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.284. Data: 43 Pardubice games / 43 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 27%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Hradec Králové 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pardubice as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 80% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 40% | Draw 32% | Hradec Králové 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Pardubice 1.32 / Hradec Králové 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.030 / def 1.030 | Hradec Králové attack 0.795 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
Where is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Pardubice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 40% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pardubice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Pardubice 4W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pardubice's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
40%
2.47
32%
3.08
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.38
1.05
Hradec Králové xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.05 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Pardubice have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 16W 10D 19L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 20W 10D 15L from 45 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 1.29 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.31 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 16W 10D 19L in their last 45 games (1.29 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 20W 10D 15L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Pardubice's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.23 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 26 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2025, when Hradec Králové won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pardubice
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Hradec Králové?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hradec Králové see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 73%, Hradec Králové 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Pardubice) and 46% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Pardubice's games and 54% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Pardubice's recent games and 46% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.