Mlada Boleslav 2-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lokotrans Aréna plays host to Mlada Boleslav versus Pardubice in Czech Liga (matchday 9). Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mlada Boleslav have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Mlada Boleslav have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice (all games): 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pardubice's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.20 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Mlada Boleslav, 1 for Pardubice and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Mlada Boleslav 2–1 Pardubice — a Mlada Boleslav win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 57% versus Pardubice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Pardubice 43%). Note also that Pardubice surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Mlada Boleslav recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.82 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.151 / defence 1.019 | Pardubice attack 0.986 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.028. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 37 games and Pardubice's last 37.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 21%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.79 | Draw 4.37 | Pardubice 4.71. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Pardubice's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 home games) | Pardubice 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.82 / Pardubice 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.151 / def 1.019 | Pardubice attack 0.986 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Pardubice xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Mlada Boleslav 2 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 56% chance of winning, Pardubice a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.15x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.99x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 37 games and Pardubice's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.37
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.86
1.03
Pardubice xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
3%
29.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.03 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 16W 8D 18L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Pardubice's form line: 13W 7D 22L from 42 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.10 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 20 home games (10W 2D 8L).
On the road, Pardubice have gone 7W 2D 11L from their last 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.07 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Pardubice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 8D 18L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 7D 22L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Pardubice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.60 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won Pardubice 0-3 Mlada Boleslav on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Pardubice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Pardubice 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 60%, Pardubice 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Mlada Boleslav and 50% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Pardubice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 40% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 50% of Pardubice's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 70% of Pardubice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav and Pardubice finished level at 2-2 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.82 xG and Pardubice 1.03 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Pardubice attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 56% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 21%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.33 PPG, Pardubice 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.