Slavia Praha 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Arena plays host to Slavia Praha versus Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Slavia Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Pardubice have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Slavia Praha's favour (2.60 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Slavia Praha are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Slavia Praha and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 45% versus Pardubice 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 58% | Pardubice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.15 xG and Pardubice 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.324 / defence 0.830 | Pardubice attack 1.058 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.035. Slavia Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Slavia Praha games / 36 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 66% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 15%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Pardubice 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Slavia Praha 30% | Pardubice 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 66% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 53% | xG Slavia Praha 2.15 / Pardubice 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.324 / def 0.830 | Pardubice attack 1.058 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Pardubice xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Slavia Praha 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice part of?
Slavia Praha vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 66% chance of winning, Pardubice a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slavia Praha and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
Record (5 meetings): Slavia Praha 5W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Slavia Praha's attack rating (1.32) and Pardubice's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.06x) against Slavia Praha's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
66%
1.52
19%
5.14
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.05
0.91
Pardubice xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
12%
8.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
2%
57.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 0.91 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slavia Praha's recent record stands at 30W 8D 2L from 40 games, a 2.45 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 20L across 40 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.30 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Slavia Praha have managed 17W 2D 1L from 20 games — 2.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pardubice's away record stands at 7W 2D 11L across 20 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 30W 8D 2L in their last 40 games (2.45 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 13W 7D 20L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Pardubice away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.65 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Pardubice in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 7-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slavia Praha have gone 6W 0D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Pardubice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Pardubice?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slavia Praha see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 45%, Pardubice 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Slavia Praha and 55% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Pardubice in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 45% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Slavia Praha's matches and 55% of Pardubice's.
Do Slavia Praha and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Pardubice 2-0 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.15 xG and Pardubice 0.91 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.32 / defence 0.83 against Pardubice attack 1.06 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 66% | Draw 19% | Pardubice 15%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 58%, Pardubice 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pardubice's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.