Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav and Karviná meet at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav at Lokotrans Aréna this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Karviná have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karviná away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Mlada Boleslav, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Karviná — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The historical record gives Mlada Boleslav a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Karviná — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 60% versus Karviná 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Karviná 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.64 xG and Karviná 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.004 / defence 0.899 | Karviná attack 0.992 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.283. Data: 41 Mlada Boleslav games / 41 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 47% | Draw 29% | Karviná 24%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Karviná 4.17. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Karviná 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 47% | Draw 29% | Karviná 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.64 / Karviná 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.004 / def 0.899 | Karviná attack 0.992 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Karviná xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 47% chance of winning, Karviná a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Karviná?
Record (4 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 3W | Draws 1 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Karviná in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Karviná (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mlada Boleslav's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Karviná's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (0.99x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
47%
2.14
29%
3.43
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.78
1.14
Karviná xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
5%
21.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.14 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 47 games, going 17W 12D 18L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.06 PPG from 47 outings (13W 11D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.06 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 11W 4D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (6W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.02 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Karviná in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 17W 12D 18L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Karviná have gone 13W 11D 23L in their last 47 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Karviná away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.61 PPG; Karviná away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 0-3 on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 4, Karviná have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Karviná 0-3 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Karviná?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 61%, Karviná 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Mlada Boleslav and 61% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games; Karviná in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 52% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 61% of Karviná's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Karviná tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Karviná in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mlada Boleslav and Karviná share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav and Karviná finished level at 1-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.64 xG and Karviná 1.14 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Karviná attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 47% | Draw 29% | Karviná 24%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Karviná 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.34 PPG, Karviná 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.