Mlada Boleslav 5-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mlada Boleslav face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mlada Boleslav stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, Hradec Králové 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2023, ended Mlada Boleslav 0–2 Hradec Králové — a Hradec Králové win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 55% versus Hradec Králové 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 53% | Hradec Králové 55%). Note also that Hradec Králové surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Mlada Boleslav recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.982 / defence 1.016 | Hradec Králové attack 0.877 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.122. Data: built from Mlada Boleslav's last 36 games and Hradec Králové's last 37.
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.98 | Draw 3.94 | Hradec Králové 4.13. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mlada Boleslav's last 10 home games and Hradec Králové's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.56 / Hradec Králové 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 0.982 / def 1.016 | Hradec Králové attack 0.877 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové FAQs
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav 5 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 50% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mlada Boleslav's last 36 games and Hradec Králové's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
50%
1.98
25%
3.94
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.56
1.00
Hradec Králové xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
19.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.00 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 11W 13D 14L from 38 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 17L across 38 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 5W 10D 4L from their last 19 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across their last 19 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.24 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav (Home) vs Hradec Králové (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové Form FAQs
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 11W 13D 14L in their last 38 games (1.21 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.32 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won Mlada Boleslav 5-1 Hradec Králové.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Mlada Boleslav 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 58%, Hradec Králové 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mlada Boleslav) and 53% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav have failed to score in 26% of games; Hradec Králové in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 53% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Mlada Boleslav's recent matches and 68% of Hradec Králové's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 5-1 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.56 xG and Hradec Králové 1.00 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 0.98 / defence 1.02 against Hradec Králové attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 50% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 53%, Hradec Králové 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.21 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.