České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
České Budějovice have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, České Budějovice have posted 7W 0D 3L at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for České Budějovice, 1.30 for Mlada Boleslav — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Mlada Boleslav, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mlada Boleslav have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 56% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 69% | Mlada Boleslav 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 2.13 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 1.177 / defence 1.262 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.016 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.180. Data: 38 České Budějovice games / 37 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 52% | Draw 21% | Mlada Boleslav 27%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | Mlada Boleslav 3.70. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, České Budějovice are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 70% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 52% | Draw 21% | Mlada Boleslav 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG České Budějovice 2.13 / Mlada Boleslav 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 1.177 / def 1.262 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.016 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
České Budějovice 1 - 2 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 52% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (5 meetings): České Budějovice 0W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 4W.
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from České Budějovice's attack rating (1.18) and Mlada Boleslav's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.02x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
52%
1.93
21%
4.79
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
3.64
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
12%
8.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
3%
30.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.51 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
České Budějovice's recent record stands at 12W 5D 22L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav, meanwhile, have gone 12W 13D 14L across 39 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.26 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, České Budějovice have managed 9W 2D 8L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, České Budějovice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.36 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 12W 5D 22L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 13D 14L in their last 39 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.53 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Mlada Boleslav have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 4-0 on 11 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
České Budějovice
1
Draws
9
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 0, Mlada Boleslav have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when České Budějovice 1-2 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 53%, Mlada Boleslav 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for České Budějovice and 58% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 32% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 53% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of České Budějovice's matches and 58% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do České Budějovice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat České Budějovice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat České Budějovice 1-2 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 2.13 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. České Budějovice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 1.18 / defence 1.26 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 52% | Draw 21% | Mlada Boleslav 27%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 69%, Mlada Boleslav 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 1.05 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.