Karviná 0-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Karviná welcome Zlin to Town Stadium Karvina. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 5W 1D 4L at Town Stadium Karvina — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Karviná) versus 2.00 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Karviná, 2 for Zlin and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.61 xG and Zlin 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 1.114 / defence 0.918 | Zlin attack 1.088 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.376. Data: 32 Karviná games / 2 Zlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Karviná 42% | Draw 26% | Zlin 32%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Zlin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 42% | Draw 26% | Zlin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Karviná 1.61 / Zlin 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 1.114 / def 0.918 | Zlin attack 1.088 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Karviná (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Zlin xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Zlin kick off?
Karviná vs Zlin kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Town Stadium Karvina.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Karviná 0 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Karviná vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Karviná vs Zlin part of?
Karviná vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 42% chance of winning, Zlin a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Karviná and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
Record (6 meetings): Karviná 2W | Draws 2 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Karviná and Zlin in?
Karviná (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 1.11x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.78
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.98
1.37
Zlin xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
6%
15.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Karviná and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Karviná and 1.37 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karviná by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Karviná's scoring rate against Zlin's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 100%.
Defensively: Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Zlin in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Zlin have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Karviná or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Zlin in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
2
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Zlin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Karviná's games and 100% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karviná vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Zlin tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zlin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Karviná 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Karviná 0-1 at Town Stadium Karvina, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.61 xG and Zlin 1.37 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Karviná fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 1.11 / defence 0.92 against Zlin attack 1.09 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 42% | Draw 26% | Zlin 32%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 50%, Zlin 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Karviná arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 2.00. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Karviná managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Zlin managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.