Karviná 2-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Relegation Round - 2 as Karviná welcome Zlin to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karviná have posted 2W 2D 6L at Městský Stadión — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Zlin's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Karviná) versus 0.70 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Karviná, 2 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Karviná winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Karviná trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Zlin trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 55% versus Zlin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 58% | Zlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.11 xG and Zlin 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.645 / defence 1.222 | Zlin attack 0.856 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Karviná's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Karviná games / 60 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 30% | Zlin 41%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Zlin 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Karviná 40% | Zlin 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 30% | Zlin 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Karviná 1.11 / Zlin 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.645 / def 1.222 | Zlin attack 0.856 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Zlin kick off?
Karviná vs Zlin kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Karviná 2 - 2 Zlin.
Where is Karviná vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Zlin part of?
Karviná vs Zlin is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 29% chance of winning, Zlin a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Karviná and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
Record (5 meetings): Karviná 2W | Draws 1 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Karviná and Zlin in?
Karviná (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.65x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
29%
3.39
30%
3.38
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Zlin xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
14%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Karviná and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Karviná and 1.35 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 6W 7D 18L from 31 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 16L across 31 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 0.81 PPG, Zlin on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 1W 4D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.16 scored and 2.03 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Zlin in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 6W 7D 18L in their last 31 games (0.81 PPG), while Zlin have gone 5W 10D 16L in their last 31 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Zlin away?
Karviná's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; Zlin away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
2
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Zlin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 53%, Zlin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Karviná) and 47% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 40% of games; Zlin in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Karviná's recent matches and 40% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Karviná's recent games and 47% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Zlin tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Zlin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Zlin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Relegation Round - 2, as Karviná and Zlin drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.11 xG and Zlin 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.65 / defence 1.22 against Zlin attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 29% | Draw 30% | Zlin 41%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, Zlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.81 PPG, Zlin 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.