Karviná 2-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Karviná face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Karviná welcome Zlin to Městský Stadión in Czech Liga (Relegation Round - 2). Kick-off is Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Karviná have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Karviná have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Zlin — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Zlin's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Karviná) versus 0.70 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Karviná have won 2, Zlin 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Karviná 1–0 Zlin — a Karviná win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Karviná trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Zlin trading profile (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 55% versus Zlin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 58% | Zlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.11 xG and Zlin 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.645 / defence 1.222 | Zlin attack 0.856 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Karviná's attack rating of 0.645 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Karviná's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zlin's projected output up. Data: built from Karviná's last 30 games and Zlin's last 60.
Result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 30% | Zlin 41%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 3.39 | Draw 3.38 | Zlin 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Karviná 40% (last 10 home games) | Zlin 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 29% | Draw 30% | Zlin 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Karviná 1.11 / Zlin 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.645 / def 1.222 | Zlin attack 0.856 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Zlin FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Zlin kick off?
Karviná vs Zlin kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Karviná 2 - 2 Zlin.
Where is Karviná vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Zlin part of?
Karviná vs Zlin is a Czech Liga fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 29% chance of winning, Zlin a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Karviná and Zlin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karviná vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.65x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 30 games and Zlin's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
29%
3.39
30%
3.38
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Zlin xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
8%
13.08
14%
7.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Zlin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Karviná and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Karviná and 1.35 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 6W 7D 18L from 31 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 5W 10D 16L across 31 games — 0.81 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 0.81 PPG, Zlin on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Karviná have managed 4W 3D 8L from their last 15 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zlin's away record stands at 1W 4D 10L across their last 15 away games, a 0.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karviná come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.16 scored and 2.03 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
Karviná (Home) vs Zlin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Karviná vs Zlin Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Zlin in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 6W 7D 18L in their last 31 games (0.81 PPG), while Zlin have gone 5W 10D 16L in their last 31 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Zlin away?
Karviná's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.00 PPG; Zlin away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 29 November 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won Karviná 4-1 Zlin.
Karviná's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
2
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Zlin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 3, Zlin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Zlin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 November 2025: Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 53%, Zlin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Karviná) and 47% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Karviná have failed to score in 40% of games; Zlin in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Zlin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Zlin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Karviná's recent matches and 40% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and Zlin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Karviná's recent games and 47% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Zlin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Karviná's recent matches and 60% of Zlin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Zlin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Městský Stadión, Relegation Round - 2, as Karviná and Zlin drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.11 xG and Zlin 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.65 / defence 1.22 against Zlin attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 29% | Draw 30% | Zlin 41%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 58%, Zlin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.81 PPG, Zlin 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.