Hradec Králové 1-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Slavia Praha travel to Malšovická Aréna to take on Hradec Králové. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Malšovická Aréna, Hradec Králové have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malšovická Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at Malšovická Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Slavia Praha — All Games: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Slavia Praha are 1.60 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hradec Králové, 2 for Slavia Praha and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 45% versus Slavia Praha 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 36% | Slavia Praha 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 0.84 xG and Slavia Praha 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 0.978 / defence 0.834 | Slavia Praha attack 1.353 / defence 0.643. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.194. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.643 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 1.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 Hradec Králové games / 42 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 21% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 46%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Slavia Praha 2.17. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 40% | Slavia Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Malšovická Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 21% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Hradec Králové 0.84 / Slavia Praha 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 0.978 / def 0.834 | Slavia Praha attack 1.353 / def 0.643 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Slavia Praha xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Malšovická Aréna.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové 1 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Malšovická Aréna.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 21% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Record (5 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 2W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 0.98x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
21%
4.69
32%
3.10
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.19
1.35
Slavia Praha xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
6%
18.03
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.35 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 18W 12D 17L from 47 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 37W 8D 2L across 47 games — 2.53 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hradec Králové heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 12W 5D 5L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 15W 6D 1L across 22 trips, a 2.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.19 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Slavia Praha in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 games (1.40 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 37W 8D 2L in their last 47 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.86 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.32 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Slavia Praha have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-1 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 50%, Slavia Praha 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hradec Králové) and 46% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 46% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 46% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové and Slavia Praha finished level at 1-1 at Malšovická Aréna, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 0.84 xG and Slavia Praha 1.35 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Slavia Praha attack 1.35 / defence 0.64, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 21% | Draw 32% | Slavia Praha 46%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 36%, Slavia Praha 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.