FK Jablonec vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FK Jablonec vs Teplice encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadion Strelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion Strelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Teplice (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Teplice away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Teplice in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Across 10 previous meetings, FK Jablonec are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 1 draws in between.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Teplice winning.

The historical record gives FK Jablonec a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Teplice — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 43% versus Teplice 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 39% | Teplice 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.67 xG and Teplice 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.068 / defence 0.882 | Teplice attack 1.131 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.231. Data: 38 FK Jablonec games / 38 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 46% | Draw 27% | Teplice 27%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 3.70. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 80% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.

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