FK Jablonec 0-0 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 38%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this FK Jablonec vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FK Jablonec welcome Plzen to Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 3 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, FK Jablonec stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, FK Jablonec have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Plzen — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Plzen's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Plzen are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of Plzen's (from FK Jablonec's last 10 home games and Plzen's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Plzen have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for FK Jablonec. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2024, ended FK Jablonec 1–2 Plzen — a Plzen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Plzen have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Plzen trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 57% versus Plzen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 40% | Plzen 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FK Jablonec surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Plzen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.066 / defence 0.928 | Plzen attack 1.288 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.086. Plzen have an above-average attack rating of 1.288, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Data: built from FK Jablonec's last 32 games and Plzen's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 36%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.64 | Draw 3.82 | Plzen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FK Jablonec 60% (last 10 home games) | Plzen 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (FK Jablonec 32 games, Plzen 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 3 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG FK Jablonec 1.34 / Plzen 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.066 / def 0.928 | Plzen attack 1.288 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Plzen xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen FAQs
What time does FK Jablonec vs Plzen kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Plzen.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Plzen part of?
FK Jablonec vs Plzen is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 3) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 38% chance of winning, Plzen a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FK Jablonec and Plzen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FK Jablonec vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.07) and Plzen's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FK Jablonec's last 32 games and Plzen's last 32, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.82
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.64
1.30
Plzen xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.65
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.30 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 10W 14D 13L from 37 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Plzen, meanwhile, have gone 23W 7D 7L across 37 games — 2.05 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 8W 7D 3L from their last 18 home games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — FK Jablonec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Plzen's away record stands at 10W 4D 4L across their last 18 away games, a 1.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
FK Jablonec (Home) vs Plzen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Plzen
Early Season
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen Form FAQs
What form are FK Jablonec and Plzen in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 10W 14D 13L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Plzen have gone 23W 7D 7L in their last 37 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.72 PPG; Plzen away: 1.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FK Jablonec have won 0, Plzen have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Plzen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: FK Jablonec 2-3 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 61%, Plzen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FK Jablonec) and 61% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FK Jablonec vs Plzen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FK Jablonec and Plzen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FK Jablonec's games and 67% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FK Jablonec and Plzen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 61% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Plzen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 89% of Plzen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Plzen finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.34 xG and Plzen 1.30 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Plzen landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Plzen attack 1.29 / defence 0.92, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 38% | Draw 26% | Plzen 36%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 40%, Plzen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.