České Budějovice 1-3 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this České Budějovice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
České Budějovice and Pardubice meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 August 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
České Budějovice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. České Budějovice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
České Budějovice at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — České Budějovice are significantly better at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — České Budějovice lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 2–3 with Pardubice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
České Budějovice — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 60% versus Pardubice 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 62% | Pardubice 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.28 xG and Pardubice 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.907 / defence 1.147 | Pardubice attack 1.023 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.058. Data: 32 České Budějovice games / 32 Pardubice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: České Budějovice 38% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 36%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Pardubice 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates České Budějovice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on České Budějovice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: České Budějovice 70% | Pardubice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: České Budějovice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: České Budějovice 38% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG České Budějovice 1.28 / Pardubice 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: České Budějovice attack 0.907 / def 1.147 | Pardubice attack 1.023 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
České Budějovice xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pardubice xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does České Budějovice vs Pardubice kick off?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What was the final score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
České Budějovice 1 - 3 Pardubice.
Where is České Budějovice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov.
What competition is České Budějovice vs Pardubice part of?
České Budějovice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives České Budějovice a 38% chance of winning, Pardubice a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both České Budějovice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will České Budějovice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
Record (7 meetings): České Budějovice 3W | Draws 2 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in?
České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates České Budějovice's attack at 0.91x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.02x) against České Budějovice's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
38%
2.67
27%
3.72
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
České Budějovice xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Pardubice xG
2.67
38%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are České Budějovice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for České Budějovice and 1.24 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for České Budějovice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, České Budějovice have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 8W 9D 20L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for České Budějovice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pardubice's form line: 11W 7D 19L from 37 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.89 PPG for České Budějovice against 1.08 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, České Budějovice have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (8W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — České Budějovice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 6W 2D 10L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
České Budějovice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.08 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
České Budějovice
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are České Budějovice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
České Budějovice have gone 8W 9D 20L in their last 37 games (0.89 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 11W 7D 19L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — České Budějovice at home or Pardubice away?
České Budějovice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — České Budějovice at home: 1.50 PPG; Pardubice away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, České Budějovice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
České Budějovice
3
Draws
4
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, České Budějovice have won 3, Pardubice have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did České Budějovice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Pardubice 1-0 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between České Budějovice and Pardubice?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — České Budějovice 56%, Pardubice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (České Budějovice) and 50% (Pardubice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice have failed to score in 28% of games; Pardubice in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = České Budějovice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when České Budějovice play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of České Budějovice's recent matches and 44% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is České Budějovice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of České Budějovice's matches and 50% of Pardubice's.
Do České Budějovice and Pardubice tend to score early?
České Budějovice have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat České Budějovice 1-3 at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting České Budějovice 1.28 xG and Pardubice 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pardubice outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of České Budějovice attack 0.91 / defence 1.15 against Pardubice attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it České Budějovice 38% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 36%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (České Budějovice 62%, Pardubice 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
České Budějovice's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pardubice's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — České Budějovice 0.89 PPG, Pardubice 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. České Budějovice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.