České Budějovice 0-0 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this České Budějovice vs Bohemians 1905 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

České Budějovice and Bohemians 1905 meet at Fotbalový stadion Střelecký ostrov in Czech Liga (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

České Budějovice have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

České Budějovice at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — České Budějovice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bohemians 1905 away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Bohemians 1905 are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of České Budějovice's games and 80% of Bohemians 1905's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours České Budějovice, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Bohemians 1905 — Bohemians 1905 have 1 win, with 1 draw.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended České Budějovice 2–1 Bohemians 1905 — a České Budějovice win.

The head-to-head data gives České Budějovice an edge — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.

Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — České Budějovice 56% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (České Budějovice 66% | Bohemians 1905 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects České Budějovice 1.02 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: České Budějovice attack 0.777 / defence 1.444 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.924 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.060. České Budějovice's attack rating of 0.777 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. České Budějovice's defence rating of 1.444 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Data: built from České Budějovice's last 36 games and Bohemians 1905's last 36.

Result probabilities: České Budějovice 27% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 1905 46%. Fair-value odds: České Budějovice 3.69 | Draw 3.74 | Bohemians 1905 2.17. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

České Budějovice have the better head-to-head record in our data (5 wins to 1), yet Bohemians 1905 are the in-form side right now — head-to-head edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though recent form (České Budějovice's last 10 home games and Bohemians 1905's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: České Budějovice 70% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 1905 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights