Dukla Praha 1-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dukla Praha at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Stadion Juliska to face Dukla Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dukla Praha have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dukla Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dukla Praha's home record at Stadion Juliska: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Dukla Praha, 1.40 for Hradec Králové — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dukla Praha lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 52% versus Hradec Králové 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 45% | Hradec Králové 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 1.64 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 1.015 / defence 0.811 | Hradec Králové attack 1.040 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.209. Data: 36 Dukla Praha games / 36 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 52% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 4.17. Dukla Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dukla Praha as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dukla Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dukla Praha 60% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Juliska • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dukla Praha 52% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Dukla Praha 1.64 / Hradec Králové 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Dukla Praha attack 1.015 / def 0.811 | Hradec Králové attack 1.040 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Dukla Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Dukla Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Hradec Králové xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 August 2025 at Stadion Juliska.
What was the final score in Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Dukla Praha 1 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Juliska.
What competition is Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Dukla Praha a 52% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dukla Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): Dukla Praha 0W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dukla Praha's attack at 1.01x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (1.04x) against Dukla Praha's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dukla Praha Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.07
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Dukla Praha xG
Total xG
2.66
1.02
Hradec Králové xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
5%
21.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Dukla Praha and 1.02 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 40 outings, Dukla Praha have picked up 0.95 PPG on a 8W 14D 18L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dukla Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové's form line: 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dukla Praha have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 6W 3D 9L from 18 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dukla Praha are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.18 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dukla Praha
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Dukla Praha have gone 8W 14D 18L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dukla Praha at home or Hradec Králové away?
Dukla Praha's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dukla Praha at home: 1.17 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Dukla Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dukla Praha have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 3-0 on 8 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dukla Praha have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dukla Praha
1
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 4 meetings on record, Dukla Praha have won 0, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dukla Praha 61%, Hradec Králové 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Dukla Praha) and 61% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dukla Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dukla Praha play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Dukla Praha's recent matches and 39% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dukla Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Dukla Praha's recent games and 61% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Dukla Praha have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dukla Praha and Hradec Králové finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Juliska, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dukla Praha 1.64 xG and Hradec Králové 1.02 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dukla Praha attack 1.01 / defence 0.81 against Hradec Králové attack 1.04 / defence 1.19, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dukla Praha 52% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 24%, with Dukla Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dukla Praha 45%, Hradec Králové 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dukla Praha's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.