Bohemians 1905 3-3 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians 1905 face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians 1905 at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Slovácko have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.30 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Bohemians 1905, 2 for Slovácko and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 0–0 Slovácko — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Slovácko trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 56% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 50% | Slovácko 44%). Note also that Slovácko surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.81 xG and Slovácko 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.950 / defence 1.171 | Slovácko attack 0.820 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.199. Slovácko's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians 1905's projected output up. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 45 games and Slovácko's last 45.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 51% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.98 | Draw 3.62 | Slovácko 4.60. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Slovácko's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 70% (last 10 home games) | Slovácko 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 51% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Bohemians 1905 1.81 / Slovácko 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.950 / def 1.171 | Slovácko attack 0.820 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Slovácko xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko FAQs
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 3 - 3 Slovácko.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 51% chance of winning, Slovácko a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (0.95) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians 1905's last 45 games and Slovácko's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
51%
1.98
28%
3.62
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
2.97
1.15
Slovácko xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
4%
28.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.15 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 14W 17D 19L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Slovácko's form line: 17W 13D 20L from 50 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians 1905 on 1.18 PPG, Slovácko on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.16 PPG from their last 25 home games (7W 8D 10L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 8W 5D 12L from their last 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.12 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905 (Home) vs Slovácko (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians 1905
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 17D 19L in their last 50 games (1.18 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 17W 13D 20L in their last 50 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovácko away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.16 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Slovácko in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won Slovácko 5-2 Bohemians 1905.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
2
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians 1905 have won 5, Slovácko have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Bohemians 1905 2-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 52%, Slovácko 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bohemians 1905) and 52% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 have failed to score in 40% of games; Slovácko in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 40% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bohemians 1905's recent games and 52% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Bohemians 1905's recent matches and 80% of Slovácko's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 17, as Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko drew 3-3 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.81 xG and Slovácko 1.15 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against Slovácko attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 51% | Draw 28% | Slovácko 22%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 50%, Slovácko 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1905 1.18 PPG, Slovácko 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovácko (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.