Plzen 3-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs FK Jablonec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Plzen welcome FK Jablonec to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, FK Jablonec have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FK Jablonec away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 2.00 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while FK Jablonec have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 52% versus FK Jablonec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 56% | FK Jablonec 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.34 xG and FK Jablonec 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.191 / defence 0.653 | FK Jablonec attack 0.941 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.147. FK Jablonec's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Plzen's defence rating of 0.653 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Plzen games / 45 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 49% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 17%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.04 | Draw 3.03 | FK Jablonec 5.88. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.05 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | FK Jablonec 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 49% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Plzen 1.34 / FK Jablonec 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.191 / def 0.653 | FK Jablonec attack 0.941 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Plzen (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.70
FK Jablonec xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Plzen 3 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Plzen vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs FK Jablonec part of?
Plzen vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 49% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 17% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Plzen and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Record (5 meetings): Plzen 4W | Draws 1 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plzen's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
49%
2.02
33%
2.99
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.05
0.70
FK Jablonec xG
2.02
49%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
4%
22.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 9.1 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Plzen and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Plzen and 0.70 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen's recent record stands at 31W 10D 9L from 50 games, a 2.06 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 17L across 50 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FK Jablonec heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 18W 4D 3L from 25 games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 5W 9D 11L across 25 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.32 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 31W 10D 9L in their last 50 games (2.06 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 16W 17D 17L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or FK Jablonec away?
Plzen's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.32 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Plzen or FK Jablonec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, FK Jablonec in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2026, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, FK Jablonec have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Plzen 5-0 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and FK Jablonec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 48%, FK Jablonec 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Plzen) and 36% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 32%; FK Jablonec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play FK Jablonec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Plzen's recent matches and 40% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Plzen's recent games and 36% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out FK Jablonec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat FK Jablonec 3-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.34 xG and FK Jablonec 0.70 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.19 / defence 0.65 against FK Jablonec attack 0.94 / defence 0.77, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 49% | Draw 33% | FK Jablonec 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 56%, FK Jablonec 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.