Bohemians 1905 0-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians 1905 host Slovácko at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians 1905 — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bohemians 1905 at Stadion Ďolíček this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians 1905 at 1.90 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bohemians 1905 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, Slovácko 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Bohemians 1905 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Slovácko trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 59% versus Slovácko 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 59% | Slovácko 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.86 xG and Slovácko 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.178 / defence 0.965 | Slovácko attack 0.946 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 Bohemians 1905 games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 22%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 4.55. Bohemians 1905 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 1905 60% | Slovácko 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Bohemians 1905 1.86 / Slovácko 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians 1905 attack 1.178 / def 0.965 | Slovácko attack 0.946 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Slovácko xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kick off?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 0 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko part of?
Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians 1905 a 53% chance of winning, Slovácko a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Record (3 meetings): Bohemians 1905 2W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in?
Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Slovácko (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians 1905's attack rating (1.18) and Slovácko's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Bohemians 1905's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.97
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Bohemians 1905 xG
Total xG
3.00
1.14
Slovácko xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
3%
29.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Bohemians 1905 and 1.14 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Bohemians 1905 have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 24W 15D 27L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Slovácko's form line: 34W 13D 19L from 66 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians 1905 have posted 1.47 PPG from 32 outings (13W 8D 11L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 11W 9D 12L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians 1905 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.47 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Bohemians 1905 have gone 24W 15D 27L in their last 66 games (1.32 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 34W 13D 19L in their last 66 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians 1905 at home or Slovácko away?
Bohemians 1905's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians 1905 at home: 1.47 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Bohemians 1905 or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians 1905 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Slovácko in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians 1905's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians 1905
3
Draws
3
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, Slovácko have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 1905 59%, Slovácko 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Bohemians 1905 and 69% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians 1905 keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians 1905 home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians 1905 play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Bohemians 1905's games and 66% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians 1905 vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Bohemians 1905's matches and 69% of Slovácko's.
Do Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko tend to score early?
Bohemians 1905 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bohemians 1905's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Championship Round - 2, as Bohemians 1905 and Slovácko drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1905 1.86 xG and Slovácko 1.14 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bohemians 1905 fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Slovácko landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians 1905 attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against Slovácko attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 1905 53% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 22%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 1905 59%, Slovácko 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.